Homepage of Marcel Fratzscher

FULL-TIME PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

Since 04/2001	European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany Head of Division (since 2008), International Policy Analysis Division: global systemic economic and financial issues, emerging markets and international financial architecture issues; management of 22 staff members. Senior Adviser (2006-08), DG-International: global real, financial and exchange rate issues; wider responsibility for coordination of research on international macro & finance issues; management of Global Economy Group. Adviser (2004-06), DG-International: global real, financial and exchange rate issues; management of Global Economy Group. Senior Economist, and Economist (2001-04), DG-Economics, Global Economy Section and Foreign Exchange & B.O.P. Section: global monetary & financial issues, financial stability, capital flows and B.o.P.
2000 – 2001	Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, USA Visiting fellow. Global economic linkages, exchange rate regimes, and the euro
1996 – 1998	Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID), Jakarta, Indonesia Macroeconomic Policy Analyst: Economic advisory work for two senior Presidential Advisors and for the Minister of Finance; areas of responsibility: exchange rates, foreign debt, and balance of payments issues.
1996	The World Bank, USA Consultant, Asia Operations Department – China: work on migration, structural reforms and regional distribution in China.

SHORT-TERM PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

6/1995 - 9/1995	Mwaniki Associates Consultants, Nairobi, Kenya Consultant, Evaluation of development project in Tanzania and Kenya.
6/1994 - 9/1994	The World Bank, USA Intern, Public Economics Division - World Development Report 1995.
6/1993 - 9/1993	Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines Intern, Private Sector Department - India and Pakistan.
6/1992 - 9/1992	American Institute of Economic Research (AIER), Massachusetts, USA Junior Research Fellow, US monetary aggregates and business cycle forecasting.

EDUCATION

1998 – 2000/01	European University Institute, Florence, Italy Ph.D. in Economics. Thesis advisors: Mike Artis, Søren Johansen, Roberto Perotti, Andrew Rose and Axel Weber Field of specialization: international macroeconomics, international finance, applied econometrics, development economics.
1994 – 96	Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, USA Master of Public Policy (MPP) in International Trade and Finance. Focus in labor and international economics. PBRC Award for Master’s Thesis.
Fall 2000	University of California at Berkeley, USA Visiting researcher in Economics Dept.; Advisor: Barry Eichengreen Work on Ph.D. dissertation and course work.
1992 – 94	University of Oxford, Trinity College, England B.A. Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) Concentration in moral philosophy and political philosophy, development economics 1993 Trinity Award for Meritorious Work.
1990 – 92	Kiel University, Germany Vordiplom degree in Economics.

RECENT AND ONGOING RESEARCH

· Contagion and the global equity market collapse of the 2007-09 financial crisis, (with G. Bekaert, M. Ehrmann and A. Mehl), mimeo, November 2009.

· Confidence and the global economy, (with M. Ehrmann), work in progress.

· Testing the scapegoat model of exchange rates, (with L. Sarno), work in progress.

· Asset Prices, News Shocks and Current Account Fluctuations in Industrialized Economies, (with R. Straub), mimeo, October 2009.

· Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice, (with C. Saborowski and R. Straub), mimeo, September 2009.

· The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts (with M. Ehrmann and S. Eijffinger), CEPR Discussion Paper No. 7585, November 2009.

· IMF Surveillance and Financial Markets – A Political Economy Analysis (with J. Reynaud), mimeo, September 2009.

· Social value of public information – testing the limits to transparency (with M. Ehrmann), ECB Working Paper No. 821, October 2007.

· Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy? (with H. Berger and M. Ehrmann), ECB Working Paper No. 695, November 2006.

· Monetary policy in the media (with H. Berger and M. Ehrmann), ECB WP No. 679, Sept. 2006.

PAPERS UNDER REVISION AT ACADEMIC JOURNALS

· Politics and Monetary Policy (with M. Ehrmann), revise and resubmit to Review of Economics and Statistics.

PUBLICATIONS IN ACADEMIC JOURNALS

· How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates? Journal of International Economics 79(1): 78-88, September 2009.

· Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area (with M. Ehrmann, R. Gürkaynak and E. Swanson), forthcoming Review of Economics and Statistics.

· Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account (with L. Juvenal and L. Sarno), forthcoming European Economic Review.

· What Explains Global Exchange Rate Movements During the Financial Crisis? Journal of International Money and Finance 28: 1390–1407, December 2009.

· Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks (with M. Ehrmann), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 71(6), 739-60.

· Risk sharing, finance and institutions in international portfolios (with J. Imbs), Journal of Financial Economics 94: 428–447, December 2009.

· Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: Measuring international financial transmission (with M. Ehrmann & R. Rigobon), NBER Working Paper 11166, forthcoming Journal of Applied Econometrics.

· Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography (with H. Berger and M. Ehrmann), European Economic Review 53(8): 1028-1041, November 2009.

· Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account (with M. Bussiere and G. Mueller), forthcoming Journal of International Money and Finance.

· Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?, (with A. Mehl), Journal of Comparative Economics 37, 335–358, September 2009.

· Purdah – On the Rationale for Central Bank Silence Around Policy Meetings (with M. Ehrmann), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(2–3), 517-27, April 2009.

· Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of the evidence (with Alan Blinder, M. Ehrmann, J. de Haan, D.-J. Jansen), Journal of Economic Literature XLVI(4), 910-45, December 2008.

· The political economy under monetary union: Has the euro made a difference? (with L. Stracca), Economic Policy 58 307-48, April 2009.

· Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s troubled politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro (with L. Stracca), International Finance 12:1, 1–31, 2009.

· Asset prices and current account fluctuations in G7 countries, (with R. Straub), IMF Staff Papers 56(3), 633-54, June 2009.

· The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets (with L. Cuadro and C. Thimann), Journal of Empirical Finance 16(1): 2-17, January 2009.

· Communication and exchange rate policy, Journal of Macroeconomics 30(4), 1651-1672, December 2008.

· Explaining monetary policy decisions in a press conference (with M. Ehrmann), International Journal of Central Banking 5(2): 41-84, June 2009.

· The pecking order of cross-border investment, (with C. Daude) Journal of International Economics 74(1), 94-119, January 2008.

· US shocks and global exchange rate configurations, Economic Policy (54), 363–409, April 2008.

· Oral interventions versus actual interventions in FX markets – An event-study approach, Economic Journal, 118, 1–28, July 2008.

· Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness? (with M. Ehrmann), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39(2–3): 509-41, March-April 2007.

· Transparency, disclosure and the Federal Reserve (with M. Ehrmann), International Journal of Central Banking 3(1): 179-225, March 2007.

· Financial globalization and integration (with P. Hartmann), special issue, Journal of International Money and Finance 26: 495-99, June 2007.

· Home bias in global bond and equity markets: the role of real exchange rate volatility (with M. Fidora and C. Thimann), Journal of International Money and Finance 26: 631-55, June 2007.

· The timing of central bank communication, (with M. Ehrmann) European Journal of Political Economy 23(1): 124-145, March 2007.

· Low probability, high impact: policy making and extreme events (with M. Bussiere), Journal of Policy Modeling 30: 111–121, 2008.

· Capital account liberalisation, uncertainty and debt structure, (with M. Bussiere and W. Koeniger), The B.E. Journals in Macroeconomics Vol. 6(1): Article 5, March 2006.

· On the long-term effectiveness of exchange rate communication and interventions, Journal of International Money and Finance 25(1): 146-67, February 2006.

· Current account dynamics in OECD and new EU member states: An intertemporal approach (with M. Bussiere and G. Mueller) Journal of Economic Integration 21(3): 593-618, September 2006.

· Financial openness and growth: short-run gain, long-run pain? (with M. Bussiere), Review of International Economics 16(1), 69–95, 2008.

· Strategies of exchange rate policy in G3 economies, Economics Letters 89(1): 68-74, October 2005.

· Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the euro area and the United States (with M. Ehrmann) Economic Journal 115: 930-50, October 2005.

· Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data, (with M. Ehrmann), Journal of International Money and Finance 24: 317-41, March 2005.

· Taking stock: Monetary policy transmission to equity markets, (with M. Ehrmann) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36(4): 719-37, August 2004.

· Towards a new Early Warning System of financial crises, (with M. Bussiere) Journal of International Money and Finance 25(6): 953-973, October 2006.

· Monetary policy announcements and money markets: A transatlantic perspective, (with M. Ehrmann), International Finance 6(3): 309-28, Winter 2003-04.

· European Integration: What lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America, (with E. Dorrucci, S. Firpo, and F. Mongelli) Open Economies Review 15: 239-269, July 2004.

· On Currency Crises and Contagion, International Journal of Finance and Economics 8(2): 109-30, April 2003.

· The Interaction between Institutional and Economic Integration at the Regional Level, (with E. Dorrucci, S. Firpo, F. Mongelli), Journal of Economic Integration 20(2): 217-51, June 2005.

· Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets, International Journal of Finance and Economics 7(3): 165-194, July 2002.

· Why are Currency Crises Contagious? A Comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994-95 and the Asian Crisis of 1997, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv/Review of World Economics 134(4), December 1998.

PUBLICATIONS IN BOOKS, BOOK REVIEWS AND OTHERS

· Central bank communication (with M. Ehrmann), contribution to The Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.

· How should central banks communicate? (with M. Ehrmann), "Designing a Central Bank Communication Strategy", in: D. Mayes and G. Wood (eds.), Designing Central Banks, Routledge, 2009, 170-192.

· What we know and what we would like to know about central bank communication, (with Alan Blinder, M. Ehrmann, J. de Haan, D.-J. Jansen) VOX, 15 May 2008, available at http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1143

· EMU has led to increased stability and convergence of financial markets in euro area, (with M. Ehrmann, R. Gürkaynak and E. Swanson) VOX, 17 September 2007, available at http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/554

· Designing a Central Bank Communication Strategy (with M. Ehrmann), Bundesbank conference volume on Designing Central Banks.

· The Impact of Exchange Rate Interventions and Communication over the Medium-Term, in: K. Liebscher (Governor Austrian National Central Bank) et al.: Currency and Competitiveness in Europe.

· Forecasting European Central Bank Monetary Policy (with H. Berger and M. Ehrmann), IMF Survey, 35(13), July 2006.

· Exchange-rate regimes and debt-maturity structure (with M. Bussiere and W. Koeniger), International Monetary Fund: 60 Years After Bretton Woods, IMF volume of international symposium of June 2004.

· Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America: A Comment, in R. Langhammer and L. Vinhas de Souza (Eds.), Berlin and New York: Springer, 2005.

· Exchange rate policy strategies in G3 economies. In. C. Fred Bergsten, John Williamson (eds.): Dollar adjustment: How far? Against what? Volume of conference proceedings, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 2004.

· The Euro Bloc, the Dollar Bloc, and the Yen Bloc: How much Monetary Policy Independence can Exchange Rate Flexibility Buy in an Interdependent World? In: ECLAC (Ed.): Towards Regional Currency Areas, UN Economic Commission For Latin America and the Caribbean.

· On the Causes of the Latin American and Asian Currency Crises of the 1990s, in E. Bour, D. Heymann, F. Navajas (Eds.): Latin American Economic Crises: Trade and Labour. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004: pp. 58-80.

· Identifying the role of contagion in currency crises with Markov-switching models. In: M. Frenkel, A. Karmann and B. Scholtens (eds.): Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2004.

· What lessons for Latin America from European integration? (with E. Dorrucci, S. Firpo, and F. Mongelli), In: P. van der Haegen and J. Vinals (eds.): Regional Integration in Europe and Latin America: Monetary and Financial Aspects. Ashgate Publishers, 2003.

· Review of “The Asian Financial Crisis. Causes, Contagion and Consequences”, by P.R. Agenor, M. Miller, D. Vines, A. Weber. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 136 No.4, 2000.

EXTERNAL PRESENTATIONS

Organisation of academic conferences and conference sessions:

· AEA Annual Meetings 2010, organisation of session on “Challenges faced by central bank communication”, Atlanta, January 2010.

· Organiser of ECB roundtable workshop on “Reform of the International Financial Architecture – A European Perspective”, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, September 2009.

· AEA Annual Meetings 2009, organisation of and paper presentations in session on “Financial market developments and global implications after 10 years of the euro”, San Francisco, January 2009.

· Organiser of ECB conference on “Global Financial Linkages, Transmission of Shocks and Asset Prices”, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, December 2008.

· AEA Annual Meetings 2008, organisation of and paper presentations in session on “Monetary policy transparency and communication”, New Orleans, January 2008.

· Organiser of ECB roundtable workshop on “Global Imbalances and Financial Linakges – Challenges for Economic Policy”, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, January 2008.

· AEA Annual Meetings 2007, organisation of and paper presentations in two sessions on “Current account imbalances” and “Financial globalisation & integration”, Chicago, January 2007.

· Organiser of ECB conference (joint with JIMF) on “Financial globalisation and integration”, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, July 2006.

· AEA Annual Meetings 2006, organisation of and paper presentations in two sessions on “Central bank transparency” and “Monetary policy and asset prices”, Boston, January 2006.

· AEA Annual Meetings 2005, organisation of and paper presentations in two sessions on “Central bank communication” and “Global current account positions”, Philadelphia, January 2005.

Policy representation:

· Representation of the ECB at several international policy fora, including the Asian Development Bank, UN Commission for Latin America, Bank of England, IMF, Bank of Japan, Banco de Mexico, BIS, Federal Reserve Board, People’s Bank of China, Bank of Canada, Czech National Bank, Bank of Finland, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bundesbank, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, KfW, and others.

Academic presentations:

· University seminars: London School of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Geneva Graduate Institute for International Studies, University of Hawaii, University of Zürich, Trinity College Dublin, European University Institute, University of Bonn, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Kiel Institute of World Economics, University of Frankfurt, University of Warwick, Free University of Berlin, University of Vigo, University of Hannover, University of Valencia, University of Bayreuth, WHU Koblenz.

· Forecast modelling workshop, Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, October 2009.

· Fed San Francisco Asia Economic Policy conference, Santa Barbara, October 2009.

· Banco de Espana – Bank of Finland Emerging Market workshop, Madrid, September 2009.

· InWent conference on “Global Financial Governance - Challenges and Regional Responses”, Berlin, September 2009

· Tsinghua-Columbia 2009 Workshop on the Global Financial Crisis and the Reform of the International Financial Architecture, Beijing, 26-27 June 2009.

· Leceister University 2009 Annual Workshop in Finance, 21 May 2009.

· Warwick Business School – JIMF conference on “The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Threats and Opportunities” Warwick, 6 April 2009.

· Fourth CEPR Annual Workshop on “Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence”, European University Institute, Florence, March 6-7, 2008.

· Panel Member, International Policy-Dialogue: “The Global Financial Crisis and International Financial Institutions: Governance Perspectives for Developing Countries,” UN Stiglitz Commission, Federal Ministry for Ec. Cooperation and Develop., Berlin, 8-9 March 2009.

· American Economic Association Annual Meetings 2009, San Francisco, January 2009.

· “Global Financial Linkages, Transmission of Shocks and Asset Prices” conference, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, December 2008

· “Exchange rates” conference, IMF – Swiss National Bank, Zurich, November 2008

· “Alternative Models for Monetary Policy Analysis” conference, Swiss National Bank, Zurich, September 2008

· “Global imbalances and monetary policy”, Institute of the World Economy, Berlin, Oct. 2008.

· “Global Liquidity and East Asian Economies” conference, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong, 26 - 27 June 2008

· “Contagion and Financial Stability” workshop, Banque de France, CREST, La fondation du risque, Paris, 30 May 2008

· “Current Account Sustainability” conference, University of Wisconsin, Madison, May 2008.

· American Economic Association Annual Meetings 2008, New Orleans, January 2008.

· OENB – CEEI conference on "Currency and Competitiveness", Vienna, 19-20 Nov. 2007

· CEPR workshop on “International Adjustment”, Brussels, 9-10 November 2007.

· CEPR workshop on “Global Imbalances, Competitiveness and Emerging Markets”, Pretoria, 28 - 29 September 2007.

· NBER Summer Institute 2007, International Finance and Macro (IFM), Cambridge, July 2007.

· Bank of Canada conference on “Exchange Rate Modelling”, Ottawa, June 2007.

· American Economic Association Annual Meetings 2007, Chicago, January 2007.

· BIS workshop on “Global financial stability”, Basel, December 2006

· “FX Interventions: Theory and Experience”, Cambridge, UK, September 2006

· “Vienna Workshop on International Capital Flows”, Vienna, July 2006

· “Current Account Sustainability” conference, University of Wisconsin, Madison, April 2006.

· CEPR workshop on the “Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence”, Gerzensee, March 2006

· CESifo area conference on Macro, Money and International Finance, Munich, February 2006

· American Economic Association Annual Meetings 2006, Boston, January 2006.

· Symposium in honour of Eugene Fama, discussion on “Market efficiency: A policy perspective”, Frankfurt, October 2005.

· Emerging markets conference, University of Navarra, Pamplona, October 2005.

· European Finance Association Annual meetings, Moscow, August 2005.

· NBER Summer Institute 2005, Workshop on Monetary Economics, Cambridge, July 2005.

· “The ECB and Its Watchers VII” conference, Frankfurt, June 2005.

· “Workshop on Central Bank Policy Modelling”, University of Namur, June 2005.

· International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve-ECB-CFS-Georgetown University, Frankfurt, May 2005.

· JIMF-CRIF-TAFI conference on “Foreign Exchange Markets”, Puerto Rico, March 2005.

· American Economic Association Annual Meetings 2005, Philadelphia, January 2005.

· Fed New York Conference on “Financial Globalization”, New York, USA, December 2004.

· IMF – ECB conference on “Global financial integration, stability and business cycles”, Frankfurt, Germany, November 2004

· IMF – Banco de España conference on "Dollars, Debt, and Deficits - 60 Years After Bretton Woods", Madrid, Spain, June 2004.

· Institute for International Economics (IIE) conference on "Dollar Adjustment: How far? Against what?" Washington, D.C., May 2004.

· 8^th and 9^th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (Journal of International Money and Finance), Rethymno, Greece, May 2004 and May 2005.

· Tobin conference by the JMCB – Fed Chicago in memory of James Tobin, Chicago, November 2003.

· International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Washington D.C., November 2003.

· CEPR-INSEAD conference on "Monetary Policy Effectiveness", Fontainebleau, November 2003.

· Latin America Meeting of the Econometric Society, Panama City, Panama, August 2003.

· Conference on “Macroeconomic Stabilisation in Latin America”, Kiel Institute of World Economics, September 2003.

· Fed New York - ECB Conference on “Monetary Policy and the Money Market”, New York, USA, June 2003.

· Conference on "Regulation and supervision of financial markets and institutions in the EU", Center for European Economic Research, University of Mannheim, July 2003.

· Conference on “Sovereign risk, capital markets and financial stability", University of Dresden, June 2003.

· 13^th World Congress of the International Economic Association, Lisbon, September 2002.

· UN Conference on "Regional Currency Areas", Santiago, Chile, March 2002.

· ECB/Eurosystem conference on Lessons from European Integration for Latin America, Frankfurt, March 2002.

· 16^th Annual Conference of the European Economic Association, Lausanne, August 2001.

· Conference on Financial Stability Framework for Asia at the Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines, May 2001.

· Money, Macro and Finance Research Group 2000 Conference, London, September 2000.

· Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2000, St. Andrews, July 2000.

· Conference on Financial Stability in EMEs, Halle Institute for Economic Research, July 2000

· Young Economist Conference 2000, Oxford, March 2000.

· German Economic Society Conference, Mainz, September 1999; Dresden, September 2004; and Bonn, September 2005.

· 12^th World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, August 1999.

· 13^th Annual Conference of the European Economic Association, Berlin, September 1998.

TEACHING

· “International Finance”, second-year course in Ph.D. program in Economics, University of Frankfurt, spring/summer 2006, 2007, 2008.

· “Advanced Macroeconomics”, Ph.D. course in Economics, European University Institute, Florence, Italy (teaching assistant to Giuseppe Bertola and Roger Farmer), winter 1999/2000.

REFEREEING

· American Economic Review; AEA Journal in Macroeconomics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Review of Economics and Statistics; Journal of International Economics; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control; Journal of Development Economics; International Journal of Central Banking; European Economic Review; Journal of Applied Econometrics; Journal of International Money and Finance; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Financial Intermediation; Journal of the Japanese and International Economies; European Journal of Political Economy; International Journal of Finance and Economics; Berkeley Electronic Journals in Macroeconomics; Oxford Economic Papers; Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (Review of World Economics); Review of International Economics; CESifo Economic Studies; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Journal of Macroeconomics; Louvain Economic Review; Palgrave Publishers; National Science Foundation.

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES & ASSOCIATIONS

· Founding member of the Global Economic Association (GEA).

· International Research Fellows of the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, since 2007

· Member of the Editorial Board of Economie Internationale, a journal of CEPII focusing on international policy issues

· Membership in European Economic Association, Verein fuer Socialpolitik, American Economic Association, American Finance Association, European Finance Association, Royal Economic Society.

AWARDS

· CEPR 2007 Prize Winner of the Best Central Bank Research Paper (press notice available at: http://www.cepr.org/press/CEPR_ESI_2007_prize.htm)

· Kiel Institute 2006/2007 Excellence Award in Global Economic Affairs (press notice available at: http://www.uni-kiel.de/ifw/presse/pm/2007/07_01_09_e.htm)

· Pacific Basin Research Center (PBRC) Award 1996 for Master’s Thesis, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, USA

· 1993 Trinity Award for Meritorious Work, Trinity Colllege, University of Oxford.